Could this highly regarded coach, however, not be the right one for a national team? After the umpteenth disappointing result of his team (in this case Russia) failing to qualify in a group with South Korea, Belgium and Algeria, one might cast a doubt on his ability to prepare teams for tournaments. Overall, in international football his teams reached a bewildering 75% winning percentage (11% losing percentage) in qualifying matches- very similar to long, national leagues-, which however became an abysmal 14% winning percentage (28% losing percentage) in the final stages of competitions. In terms of points per game, this translates into a significant 2.39 vs. 1.4 difference.
This conclusion is not just because he failed once with England (after all, who hasn’t?), but because if we carefully analyze his coaching career at a club level, and we don’t just stop at his nine national titles in 15 full seasons, we also notice that despite winning many leagues, he almost never succeeded at a continental level.
He did win a Champions League with Milan, in one of the most extraordinary and surprising finals in the history of the UCL: 4-0 against Cruijff’s supposedly unbeatable Dream Barcelona. Well, at least that’s how people like to remember the facts, as time tends to blend facts and legends. The truth is, if we look at his players, Capello had nothing less than a Dream Team himself: Maldini, Tassotti, Donadoni, Boban, Massaro, Albertini and Savicevic, just to name a few. And consider that Baresi and Costacurta were suspended and couldn’t play in the final.
Except for a Supercup, he failed to win another continental trophy. He reached the UCL final in 1993 and 1995 with the rossoneri, but lost to two significantly weaker sides: Olympique Marseille in 1993 (Milan could count on, as well as the Italian core, Van Basten, Rijkaard and Papin), and a young Ajax squad, led by Davids, and two teenagers called Kluivert and Seedorf. In those years Milan also lost two Intercontinental Cup finals against Sao Paolo and Velez.
Other than that, he failed at Roma (knocked out in the CL second group phase twice), he failed at Juve (two quarter-final exits), he failed in Madrid (one round-16 exit).
In his defense, one could argue that Roma and Juve don’t exactly have a “European DNA”, and thus that winning with them wasn’t easy. If this is true, though, how do we explain the fact that he never even won a single national cup in his coaching career?
Milan (5 Italian Cups), Roma (9), Juventus (9) and Real Madrid (19 Copas del Rey) all have the national cup in their DNA, and having won the league with each and every team, one can’t even argue that he didn’t coach the best side in the country. Despite this, his best result was a Coppa Italia final with Milan and one with Roma.
Numbers speak clear: in 15 whole seasons as a club coach, in 11 of them his team’s points per game average was better in the domestic league than in tournament football (national cups and continental cups combined). Overall, the ppg in domestic play amounts to 1.98 vs. 1.78 in tournament play.
Does this mean his teams win less games when it’s either win or go home? Apparently yes: the impressive 57% winning percentage of Capello in leagues drops to a so-and-so 49.5% in the Cups, and though the difference isn’t as remarkable as in his international record, it does depict a clear trend: Capello prefers long leagues.
What doesn’t change is the number of draws (29% vs. 28%), meaning that the losing percentage goes up from 14% to 23%. As to why this happens, the statistical reason is that Capello’s teams score less goals in knock-out stages (1.50 vs. 1.74), while conceding almost the same number of goals (0.82 in cups vs. 0.85 in leagues).
The non-statistical reason, instead, is hard to explain. Possibly “Don Fabio“ is more of a hard worker than a motivator. His methods pay-off more in the long-run, while in a single match his teams have always been more vulnerable. In addition, his defensive style historically doesn’t pay off in International football as much as it does in Italy. Finally, it is possible that the language barrier he had abroad (except in Madrid, as Italian and Spanish are very similar) might have prevented him to fully convey his credo.
Whatever the reasons, Capello’s paradoxical trend continued during his international career. He was appointed by England in 2008 after they failed to qualify for Euro 2008, and his attention to details and non-compromising attitude immediately bore fruits, as a previously anarchic English national team brilliantly reached South Africa with an astonishing 90% winning percentage. Again, a 2-year qualification round, very similar to a club league equals brilliant results. A month-long tournament with knock out stages, equals a R-16 elimination vs. Germany, and a total of two draws, one win and one loss.
He then led England to Euro 2012 with five wins and three draws in eight games, only to resign before the big competition following a row with the FA over Terry’s captaincy.
After England came his latest chapter: Russia. The Asian-European giants were looking for a leader to prepare their team for the 2018 Cup, to be held in Russia. They thought they had found in Capello the right man, for his experience and for his coaching qualities.
Well, you all know the result: a brilliant qualifying round with seven wins out of 10 games with only two losses (first WC qualification in 12 years for Russia), and another disappointing World Cup campaign with two draws and a loss, in a difficult-yet-not-impossible group.
Fabio Capello is now under fire, as the local press are fiercely criticizing his work, blaming him for the team’s failure. More than anything else, Russians do not accept that his salary amounts to more than $11 M, 763 times more than the average Russian worker, making him the highest paid coach in the World Cup. They believe he is not earning that kind of money.
Capello is an excellent coach, probably one of the greatest when it comes to long competitions. He obviously lacks something when it comes to the “in or out” type of situation though.
At this point, after having analyzed the numbers, Russia should think carefully as to whether the Italian coach is the right one to prepare an inexperienced team to the 2018 event.
As some people in Italy have made his name for the Azzurri bench too, we ask ourselves: does Fabio Capello really have the skills to coach tournament football? Follow @jkave85
Thursday, July 3 rd, 2014
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