With the start of this summer’s market window, the Football Observatory research group within the International Centre of Sports Studies (CIES) published its Annual Review on players and clubs in the big-5 European leagues. We will start analysing the review by concentrating on player market value; calculated through an econometrical model base on in-depth analysis on a sample of 1500 player transfers in the last five years.

Despite this year’s disparity in performance, the estimated market value of Lionel Messi (200-233 million €) nearly doubles the one of Champions League winner Cristiano Ronaldo (106-123 million €). This is essentially linked to the age difference between the two Ballon d’Or winners, as the Argentinian is two years younger than the Portuguese. On the lowest step of the podium we find Luis Suarez. His estimated value fluctuates between 99 and 115 million euros, still a possible record-breaking figure if Liverpool decided to let the Uruguayan go notwithstanding the extraordinary season in Premier League.

Let go for free by Manchester Utd, Paul Labile Pogba proved his excellence in 88 appearances with Juventus, scoring 14 goals and pleasing all football enthusiasts in the last two seasons. For the delight of both his agent Mino Raiola and Juventus’ general manager Marotta, the French’s projected transfer value of 61-70 million euros currently grants him the title of most expensive Serie A player, sixth overall. If, eventually, the Bianconeri’s management decided to sell their young jewel, accordingly to CIES’s studies they would be liquidating 23% of their team’s value in one single transfer.

Rumour has it AC Milan might be following the same path by offering Serie A’s second most valuable player on the market, Mario Balotelli. Yet again, considering previous transfers with similar characteristics together with variables like age, length of contract remaining, position, player performance at club level for previous seasons as well as performances at national A-team level, the transfer value of former Manchester City striker is estimated around 36-40 million euros.

Scrolling down the chart we find the third Serie A player in 30th position: Miralem Pjanić. The 24-year-old midfielder transferred from to Lyon to Roma in the summer of 2011 for eleven million euros and is now worth somewhere between 32 and 38 million euros. His permanence in the capital’s team is expected to endure as Walter Sabatini has confirmed it more than once during the past months. The AS Roma sports manager has also stated the club’s interest for Juan Manuel Iturbe, which has an estimated transfer value of 15 million (45% of Hellas Verona’s aggregate roster value).

Barcelona has proved strong appreciation for Fiorentina’s offensive wing Juan Cuadrado lately. The Blaugrana will have to sweat this one if they want the Colombian next season. The price tag should be between 32 and 37 million euros. Josep Maria Bartomeu’s club will also have to convince both Pozzo and Della Valle since the player’s rights to play are equally owned by Udinese and Fiorentina (co-ownerships have been recently abolished in Italy as we explained on SerieAddicted). Higuain (31/36 million euros), Vidal (29/34 mil) and Bonucci (24/28 mil) are the only other Serie A players in the top 60, respectively in 36th, 39th and 58th position.

The promising Luke Shaw, born in 1995 and currently wearing the Southampton jersey, is the youngest player on the list with an estimated transfer value between 29 and 33 million euros. The oldest is Brazil’s captain, Thiago Silva, who left Ac Milan in a deal for 42 million euros two summers ago. Despite his age of 30 he is still considered the best defensive player, having the same transfer value of younger colleagues like Kompany or Piquè.

Considering the complete and current rosters. Barcelona tops the big-5 league table with a total value of 593 million, followed by eternal rivals and Champions League winners Real Madrid, who are worth 488. Liga winners and UCL runner-ups Atletico Madrid aren’t considered worth half of their city’s opponents: their aggregate transfer value is 221 million euros.

The scenario is different in the English Premier League where Man City (386€ M), Chelsea (385€ M), Liverpool (373€ M) and Arsenal (358€ M) all have rosters with a high value and little gap between them. Humble results and squad ageing essentially explain the relatively low levels observed for high-status clubs such as Manchester Utd (273) and Milan (138). Serie A’s final chart more or less represents the value of this years’ teams since Juventus leads with 282 million, Roma and Napoli follow with 213 and 211 respectively. 


*co-owned players (the value in the chart is half of the total value of the player)

 

Follow @s_garini